Bangladesh's hidden economy is running on empty
Households are carrying shocks with almost no monthly cushion: average income and expenditure now leave only BDT 70 at month's end.
The system is at its limit.
Households above the poverty line but below the median per-capita monthly income, occupying a zone of non-poverty without stability.
Work exists. Income stability does not.
Urban expenditure inequality remains sharply above rural levels.
Bottom-decile households reporting skipped meals.
At least one full day without food in the last month.
No margin remains.
Income and expenditure now sit almost on top of each other. The household economy is still moving, but without spare room.
The surplus is nominal.
At national level, the monthly surplus is BDT 70.
Debt replaces savings.
Across lower deciles, liabilities overtake buffers. Resilience is no longer asset-backed.
Fragility becomes structural.
The problem is no longer episodic shock. It is permanent exposure concentrated at the bottom.
This is what remains.
The system holds. Households do not.
Shocks are absorbed by households.
Health shocks, debt stress, and food insecurity cluster tightly. When buffers collapse, shocks are absorbed at household level, forcing the poorest households to use food as their primary adjustment variable.
Co-occurring Stress
Deficit
Bottom-Decile Meals
Underemployment
Shock & Distress
Exposure is uneven.
Urban households face steeper expenditure inequality, while remittance-linked resilience concentrates in upper deciles.
Premium
Urban vs Rural Gini
Remittance by Decile
Vulnerability Card
Protection fails under stress.
Governance burdens intensify for households already in distress, while safety-net targeting reveals both undercoverage and inclusion errors.
Hoirani / Reported Harassment
Targeting Mismatch
Access remains.
Bargaining power does not.
Access without bargaining power.
Digital access is widespread. Productive digital capability is not. Households can view the economy through screens, but remain unevenly positioned to participate in it.
Inference Layer
The Glass Screen Divide
Citation & Data Access
Study Citation
Rahman, H. Z., Hashemi, S. M., Wazed, M. A., Rabbani, M. G., Shameem, N., Hassan, M. I., Lamisha, M. R., Hossain, B., & Huq, M. (2025). The State of the Real Economy. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).
Web Special Report Citation
Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC). (2025). State of the Real Economy: A Baseline of Fragility. Dhaka, Bangladesh: PPRC Evidence Platform.